Index > Course > 2021-03-30: Review of Chapters 1 through 4

2021-03-30: Review of Chapters 1 through 4

Book review:

• Chapter 1: 2008 Financial Crisis
  • 1.2% chance the CDO would fail
  • In reality, it was 28%
• Chapter 2: TV experts are pretty bad
  • Hedgehogs vs Foxes
  • think probabilistically
• Chapter 4: Accuweather
  • Weather reporting is biased towards wet
  • Except the nat. weather service
  • We want our forecasters to be accurate

Out of Sample: extrapolating; predicting something far away from our sampled data

For Assignment 4, write down the counties as they appear, even if they are wrong.

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Index > Course > 2021-03-30: Review of Chapters 1 through 4