Index > Course > 2021-03-04: Elicit the Experts

2021-03-04: Elicit the Experts

It’s time to buy the textbook: “Signal and the Noise” by Nate Silver. $18 hardcover on Amazon.

SRI/CMU Protocol

We will have to do this for assignment three.

• understand the issue
• Know what you want to know
• Explain the protocol and common issues with human elicitation
• Discuss the issue without elicitation
  • discuss the topic qualitatively
  • discover what elements and issues are important
• Begin structuring the elicitation
• Do the actual elicitation
  • Get estimates and confidence intervals
  • Use models / units that make it easy for the expert
  • Talk about the reasons behind the answers
  • Encourage extreme numbers - what really is the 98th CI

There are examples on myCourses.

---

Index > Course > 2021-03-04: Elicit the Experts