Index > Decision Analysis > 2021-02-04: Reading Discussions

2021-02-04: Reading Discussions

Third class of the day. I’m tired.

Last class, we estimated how many german engineers there were, and how many Volkswagens hit 100k miles each year.

We do estimation because we can’t find the exact data point we’re looking for. Our estimation should be based on other data that we can find.

• Identify all the assumptions your estimation is based on
• Draw from experience and basic data sources
• Use statistics if needed
• Be creative, but be logical and able to justify decisions

Discussion on Readings

Benefit-cost analysis has a few hidden assumptions.

• Is the answer with the most net benefit, the best option?
• The BCA doesn’t tell you how benefits are distributed

Some issues:

• selecting evaluation concept
  • How to value the loss of 100 swimming salmon?
    • current market price?
    • post-loss market price?
    • environmental impact?
• Discount rates?
• Who’s benefits / costs should be counted?

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Index > Decision Analysis > 2021-02-04: Reading Discussions