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Policy Evaluation

1. Identify Goals
   • Has the policy achieved its goals?
2. Understand how a policy works
   • We want to understand why a policy leads to the results that it does
3. Identify targeting population
   • Who is the policy intended to affect? Who does it affect?
4. Measure the outcome
   • “Devise a means to measure the extend to which the goals have been achieved”
   • Often involves Counterfactuals - What would have happened?
   • This is very very difficult.
5. Decide on the criteria/value system
   • On what grounds will we evaluate the policy?

Example: Fema + HMGP

Fema’s goal is to reduce losses from natural hazards.

The Hazard Mitigation Grant Program gives funds to state and local govs, after a disaster, to help mitigate future disasters. The HMGP could fund up to 75% of mitigation projects.

How can we evaluate the HMGP?

This can relate to business - how can a business measure the success of an internal program? Do pizza parties actually help morale?

1. Goals - to reduce the losses from natural disasters.
2. Method - localities voluntarily propose projects for funding
   • Projects are area specific, no dams in the desert! Nice.
   • Voluntary participation means it might not be as effective as hoped.
3. Target Population - Areas where disasters can strike
4. Measuring the Outcomes
   • Projected losses from a disaster - actual losses = losses avoided. How to determine this?
   • Idea - Look at the decrease in insurance rates in the area?